Maybe I'm just looking at this picture too simplistically, but but I think the question of whether we are in or out of recession, or whether we can expect a double-dip recession, is a moot point if we are going to use employment as a benchmark/indicator for the state of our economy. The reality is, companies across the board have employed such principals as Lean Manufacturing, as well as other efficiency strategies, and as a result, these companies are becoming more and more healthy while requiring fewer and fewer employees. It's the new state of business.
Aside the employment figures, one of the reasons we believed we left the recession behind is due to manufacturing and retail figures. Slowly but surely, these numbers have been improving, to a point where economists felt it acceptable to report that we were no longer in recession. And with news like that, consumer sentiment improves and as a result, retail figures improve. It's all pretty self-fulfilling, isn't it? Tell people things are getting better and they will believe it, and behave accordingly. Tell people thinks suck, and again, they will act accordingly.
So yes, employment is stalled. That's primarily due to the fact that all of the companies that let the 9.2% of the people go from their jobs no longer need these people to maintain their levels of business. And in many cases, it's not that these companies are shrinking in revenues and matching employment to revenue levels. It's that they have learned how to do more things with less people. So guess what, even as these companies continue to grow, they won't be hiring in some sort of linear fashion. More with less! It's a simple equation. And the reality is, with these new efficiency programs like lean, most companies now have the headroom to absorb even more revenue without needing to hire, because their new operational and productivity systems are that efficient.
So yes, we have a 9.2% unemployment, and yes, it impacts consumer sentiment. But the reality is, we aren't going to positively impact umemployment significantly by bolstering revenues to these newly efficient companies. We need to create new companies and new business opportunities, unlike any that we've seen before. Look to the Googles and the Facebooks of the world that don't manufacture "stuff" to survive. The sky's the limit for companies like that. Also, since efficiency is the key to a healthier manufacturing sector, let's look at the businesses that help make these manufacturers more efficient... how do we grow that business sector? After all, everyone wants to be more efficient, right?
The bottom line is, the definition of business is changing with our more efficient and flattening economy, so the metrics that we use to gauge the health of the econony need to change too. Otherwise, we'll continue to fulfill the economic prophecy in the wrong direction, because consumers are just reactionary beasts. If you want the econony to improve, just find a reason to tell them it's improving and they'll find a way to make it happen.
I'm not an economist and I don't play one... anywhere. I just have an opinion and need a place to air it. so be it.
